Indicators of habitat change affecting three key commercial species of the U.S. Northeast Shelf: A design to facilitate proactive management in the face of climate change

Project Details

Description

Statement of the Problem and Rationale: The productivity and/or distributions of many living marine resources (LMRs) within the U.S. Northeast Shelf (U.S. NES) have been changing in concert with warming ocean temperatures. However, most operational models used for the assessment of LMRs to inform fisheries management assume that the effects of the environment on distribution, population productivity, and natural mortality are implicit or fixed in space and

time. As a result, assessment projections of stock size used for developing fisheries management regulations assume past ecosystem conditions will be sustained in the future. The few studies

that have incorporated climate change into LMR models have used empirical relationships between the environment, distribution, and abundance derived from field studies. These studies are in essence 'environmental correlations' but are limited in their description of ecological relationships because: 1) Abundance and distribution patterns in the field can be poor proxies for habitat suitability because there can be time lags between changes in habitat and an organism's

response; 2) Broad-scale distribution models do not do a good job at local scales nor at locations where habitat gradients are steep; and 3) Species-environmental relationships derived from statistical analyses of existing survey data are of unknown quality in terms of an organism's responses to novel environmental conditions that might arise with climate change. Laboratory-based studies of physiological responses that can be used to calibrate species niche models with a

basis in fundamental eco-physiological mechanisms are likely to produce more accurate projections that can include future environmental states. Three commercial species will be the

focus of this proposal: black sea bass (Centropristis striata), longfin squid (Doryteuthis pealeii), and spiny dogfish (Squalus acanthias). The Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council currently has substantial interest in these species due to existing and potential changes in habitat. Achieving improved habitat metrics based on laboratory studies of these three species can produce hindcast simulations and climate change projections of habitat quantity and quality and

ultimately guide existing and future management decisions.

StatusFinished
Effective start/end date8/1/157/31/20

Funding

  • NOAA Research: $747,743.00

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