Understanding the Determinants of Concentration of Poverty: The Spatial Dynamics of Urban and Suburban Housing Development

This research project will examine the determinants of concentration of poverty -- the extent to which the poor are isolated in high-poverty neighborhoods -- with emphasis on the role of public policies that shape metropolitan growth and development. The investigators will use a longitudinal database of U.S. metropolitan areas to analyze the role of changes in the income distribution vs. changes in the spatial organization of households by race, ethnicity, and income across the cities and suburbs that make up metropolitan areas. The project will provide new insights regarding the extent to which concentration of poverty is a function of the segregated pattern of the housing stock, especially new housing construction, and it will enhance understanding of the contribution of local control of development decisions and restrictive land-use policies in establishing a landscape of housing that creates and maintains concentration of poverty and segregation by race and class. The project will test the hypothesis that concentration of poverty is the product of larger structural forces, political decisions, and institutional arrangements than usually are considered. This research will provide the factual and empirical basis to determine what changes are needed in metropolitan development policies and practices if the nation is to reduce the concentration of the poor in high-poverty neighborhoods, and it will contribute to wider discussions regarding the critical contemporary issues of segregation, concentration of poverty, social mobility, and inequality.

The lived experience of poverty in the U.S., especially for poor African-American and Hispanic people, is shaped by the spatial organization of wealth and poverty. Recent research has demonstrated clear links between neighborhood poverty and social and economic outcomes. Unfortunately, the number of people living in high-poverty ghettos, barrios, and slums has nearly doubled since 2000, rising from 7.2 million to more than 14 million. These increases were underway well before the recession began in 2007, so they reflect changes in the spatial organization of poverty as well as the effects of the financial crisis. The investigators will examine the extent to which concentration of poverty has been driven by patterns of housing development that segregate metropolitan housing by type (single-family vs. multi-family), tenure (owner-occupied vs. rental), age of housing (median year built), and housing unit characteristics. They will determine differential patterns of housing among and within metropolitan areas by assessing the constraints imposed by land use regulations, because density zoning, material restrictions, setback requirements, and other measures imposed by a highly fragmented set of local jurisdictions within metropolitan areas constrain market outcomes and channel housing construction towards local homogeneity and economic segregation at larger scales. The investigators will use a multilevel longitudinal panel of neighborhoods, political jurisdictions (i.e., cities and suburbs), and metropolitan areas from 1970 onwards in order to decompose concentrated poverty into spatial and non-spatial components and to empirically measure the relationship of the spatial component to the pace and exclusivity of metropolitan development.