Understanding Variation in U.S. Homicide Rates across Time and Space, 1970-1996

This research will test theories that explain why rates of violent crime vary over time and space, including theories that emphasize economic conditions, criminal justice practices, and changes in demography. Although considerable criminological research, adopting either a cross-sectional or time-series approach, has been conducted to evaluate the importance of such characteristics in explaining violent crime, the understanding of these key factors remains limited. The most important factors affecting variation in homicide rates over time appear to differ from those affecting spatial variation. The principal investigator will explore these disparities by combining spatial and temporal information on homicide rates from 1970 to 1996 for all counties with a population of at least 100,000. This research will provide a more precise gauge for law enforcement agencies and the public in predicting future trends in homicide levels and may suggest approaches to crime fighting.