TY - GEN
T1 - A combinatorial prediction market for the U.S. elections
AU - Dudík, Miroslav
AU - Lahaie, Sebastien
AU - Pennock, David M.
AU - Rothschild, David
PY - 2013
Y1 - 2013
N2 - We report on a large-scale case study of a combinatorial prediction market. We implemented a back-end pricing engine based on Dudík et al.'s [2012] combinatorial market maker, together with a wizard-like front end to guide users to constructing any of millions of predictions about the presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial elections in the United States in 2012. Users could create complex combinations of predictions and, as a result, we obtained detailed information about the joint distribution and conditional estimates of election results. We describe our market, how users behaved, and how well our predictions compared with benchmark forecasts. We conduct a series of counterfactual simulations to investigate how our market might be improved in the future. Categories and Subject Descriptors: J.4 [Social and Behavioral Sciences]: Economics General Terms: Economics.
AB - We report on a large-scale case study of a combinatorial prediction market. We implemented a back-end pricing engine based on Dudík et al.'s [2012] combinatorial market maker, together with a wizard-like front end to guide users to constructing any of millions of predictions about the presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial elections in the United States in 2012. Users could create complex combinations of predictions and, as a result, we obtained detailed information about the joint distribution and conditional estimates of election results. We describe our market, how users behaved, and how well our predictions compared with benchmark forecasts. We conduct a series of counterfactual simulations to investigate how our market might be improved in the future. Categories and Subject Descriptors: J.4 [Social and Behavioral Sciences]: Economics General Terms: Economics.
KW - Combinatorial security
KW - Elections
KW - Market maker
KW - Prediction market
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84879779219&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84879779219&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1145/2492002.2482601
DO - 10.1145/2492002.2482601
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:84879779219
SN - 9781450319621
T3 - Proceedings of the ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce
SP - 341
EP - 358
BT - EC 2013 - Proceedings of the 14th ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce
PB - Association for Computing Machinery
T2 - 14th ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce, EC 2013
Y2 - 16 June 2013 through 20 June 2013
ER -