A note on demand and supply factors in manufacturing output asymmetries

Oleg Korenok, Bruce Mizrach, Stanislav Radchenko

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Abstract

In a Markov switching framework, we show that the duration of recessions is significantly shorter than the duration of expansions in 11 manufacturing sectors, and in aggregate durables and manufacturing output. We find two leading indicators, consumer expectations and the term spread, act as important demand-driven forces behind asymmetry.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)263-277
Number of pages15
JournalMacroeconomic Dynamics
Volume13
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Apr 1 2009

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All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Economics and Econometrics

Keywords

  • Asymmetry
  • Industry
  • Leading Indicators
  • Markov Switching

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