A Resilience-Augmented Approach to Compound Threats and Risk Governance: A Systems Perspective on Navigating Complex Crises

Compound threats—two or more relatively rare and high-consequence events that co-occur in time and space, amplifying their effects—present difficult-to-predict events that can impose potentially grave consequences. While there has been increasing attention placed on modeling the probabilities and outcomes of compounding threats, there are no proposed governance models for compound threats, limiting the ability of policymakers and decisionmakers to manage such crises in the future. We visualize resilience for compound threats to understand how critical functioning and system utility to contain hazards, to absorb losses, and to recover from stressors shifts over time. Using North Carolina as a case study, we conduct a compound threats assessment for disaster risk to showcase its effectiveness in more accurately predicting disaster risk areas, as well highlight the limitations of existing risk models used by policymakers. We propose a resilience-augmented conceptual framework to rethink risk governance for compound threats that allows for speed (specifically flexibility and adaptability) in situations of high uncertainty while working within the rigid, slow-moving boundaries of government and bureaucracy. Finally, we discuss strategies for key actors to apply a resilience-augmented governance approach to compound threats into operational decision-making during crisis situations.