An assessment of the skill of real-time models of Mid-Atlantic Bight continental shelf circulation

John L. Wilkin, Elias J. Hunter

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

38 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Prescribing open boundary conditions for regional coastal ocean models encounters the challenge of imposing information on sea level, velocity and tracers that characterize the unrepresented far field ocean. Deriving such information from a larger domain model without communicating information from the "nested" model back to the exterior model is " downscaling". We evaluate whether real-time models presently in operation for the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) can deliver useful predictions of subtidal frequency currents and subsurface temperature and salinity for this downscaling purpose. The MAB is a broad continental shelf region where several models run in real time and there is a dense observational data set available for skill assessment. We examine seven real-time models that cover the MAB: three global models, and four regional models. A regional climatology is included as an eighth model. Skill metrics with respect to model bias, centered root mean square error and cross correlation are computed for temperature and salinity profile data from 16 autonomous underwater glider vehicle missions and four hydrographic voyages in 2010-2011. Two years of hourly HF-radar surface current observations that span the shelf are used to evaluate modeled mean surface currents and daily time scale variability in speed and direction. Skill metrics, with uncertainty estimates, are reported for inner and outer shelf subregions, and for stratified and unstratified seasons. A group of models is identified that offers useful skill for the purposes of providing open boundary data to inner shelf and estuary models for real-time applications. Key Points Real-time models of Mid Atlantic Bight assessed with gliders and HF-radar data Bias, RMS error and correlation quantified for inner and outer shelf, and season Models with skill for coastal downscaling applications are identified

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)2919-2933
Number of pages15
JournalJournal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
Volume118
Issue number6
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2013

Fingerprint

continental shelves
continental shelf
shelves
downscaling
gliders
Gliders
radar
salinity
Radar
oceans
communicating
ocean models
estuaries
Climatology
autonomous underwater vehicle
climatology
root-mean-square errors
radar data
ocean
Sea level

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Geophysics
  • Forestry
  • Oceanography
  • Aquatic Science
  • Ecology
  • Water Science and Technology
  • Soil Science
  • Geochemistry and Petrology
  • Earth-Surface Processes
  • Atmospheric Science
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
  • Space and Planetary Science
  • Palaeontology

Keywords

  • Mid-Atlantic Bight
  • coastal circulation
  • data assimilation
  • real-time modeling
  • skill assessment

Cite this

@article{8366140463c941fda7fae44930c31fb3,
title = "An assessment of the skill of real-time models of Mid-Atlantic Bight continental shelf circulation",
abstract = "Prescribing open boundary conditions for regional coastal ocean models encounters the challenge of imposing information on sea level, velocity and tracers that characterize the unrepresented far field ocean. Deriving such information from a larger domain model without communicating information from the {"}nested{"} model back to the exterior model is {"} downscaling{"}. We evaluate whether real-time models presently in operation for the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) can deliver useful predictions of subtidal frequency currents and subsurface temperature and salinity for this downscaling purpose. The MAB is a broad continental shelf region where several models run in real time and there is a dense observational data set available for skill assessment. We examine seven real-time models that cover the MAB: three global models, and four regional models. A regional climatology is included as an eighth model. Skill metrics with respect to model bias, centered root mean square error and cross correlation are computed for temperature and salinity profile data from 16 autonomous underwater glider vehicle missions and four hydrographic voyages in 2010-2011. Two years of hourly HF-radar surface current observations that span the shelf are used to evaluate modeled mean surface currents and daily time scale variability in speed and direction. Skill metrics, with uncertainty estimates, are reported for inner and outer shelf subregions, and for stratified and unstratified seasons. A group of models is identified that offers useful skill for the purposes of providing open boundary data to inner shelf and estuary models for real-time applications. Key Points Real-time models of Mid Atlantic Bight assessed with gliders and HF-radar data Bias, RMS error and correlation quantified for inner and outer shelf, and season Models with skill for coastal downscaling applications are identified",
keywords = "Mid-Atlantic Bight, coastal circulation, data assimilation, real-time modeling, skill assessment",
author = "Wilkin, {John L.} and Hunter, {Elias J.}",
year = "2013",
month = "1",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1002/jgrc.20223",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "118",
pages = "2919--2933",
journal = "Journal of Geophysical Research",
issn = "0148-0227",
publisher = "American Geophysical Union",
number = "6",

}

An assessment of the skill of real-time models of Mid-Atlantic Bight continental shelf circulation. / Wilkin, John L.; Hunter, Elias J.

In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 118, No. 6, 01.01.2013, p. 2919-2933.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - An assessment of the skill of real-time models of Mid-Atlantic Bight continental shelf circulation

AU - Wilkin, John L.

AU - Hunter, Elias J.

PY - 2013/1/1

Y1 - 2013/1/1

N2 - Prescribing open boundary conditions for regional coastal ocean models encounters the challenge of imposing information on sea level, velocity and tracers that characterize the unrepresented far field ocean. Deriving such information from a larger domain model without communicating information from the "nested" model back to the exterior model is " downscaling". We evaluate whether real-time models presently in operation for the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) can deliver useful predictions of subtidal frequency currents and subsurface temperature and salinity for this downscaling purpose. The MAB is a broad continental shelf region where several models run in real time and there is a dense observational data set available for skill assessment. We examine seven real-time models that cover the MAB: three global models, and four regional models. A regional climatology is included as an eighth model. Skill metrics with respect to model bias, centered root mean square error and cross correlation are computed for temperature and salinity profile data from 16 autonomous underwater glider vehicle missions and four hydrographic voyages in 2010-2011. Two years of hourly HF-radar surface current observations that span the shelf are used to evaluate modeled mean surface currents and daily time scale variability in speed and direction. Skill metrics, with uncertainty estimates, are reported for inner and outer shelf subregions, and for stratified and unstratified seasons. A group of models is identified that offers useful skill for the purposes of providing open boundary data to inner shelf and estuary models for real-time applications. Key Points Real-time models of Mid Atlantic Bight assessed with gliders and HF-radar data Bias, RMS error and correlation quantified for inner and outer shelf, and season Models with skill for coastal downscaling applications are identified

AB - Prescribing open boundary conditions for regional coastal ocean models encounters the challenge of imposing information on sea level, velocity and tracers that characterize the unrepresented far field ocean. Deriving such information from a larger domain model without communicating information from the "nested" model back to the exterior model is " downscaling". We evaluate whether real-time models presently in operation for the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) can deliver useful predictions of subtidal frequency currents and subsurface temperature and salinity for this downscaling purpose. The MAB is a broad continental shelf region where several models run in real time and there is a dense observational data set available for skill assessment. We examine seven real-time models that cover the MAB: three global models, and four regional models. A regional climatology is included as an eighth model. Skill metrics with respect to model bias, centered root mean square error and cross correlation are computed for temperature and salinity profile data from 16 autonomous underwater glider vehicle missions and four hydrographic voyages in 2010-2011. Two years of hourly HF-radar surface current observations that span the shelf are used to evaluate modeled mean surface currents and daily time scale variability in speed and direction. Skill metrics, with uncertainty estimates, are reported for inner and outer shelf subregions, and for stratified and unstratified seasons. A group of models is identified that offers useful skill for the purposes of providing open boundary data to inner shelf and estuary models for real-time applications. Key Points Real-time models of Mid Atlantic Bight assessed with gliders and HF-radar data Bias, RMS error and correlation quantified for inner and outer shelf, and season Models with skill for coastal downscaling applications are identified

KW - Mid-Atlantic Bight

KW - coastal circulation

KW - data assimilation

KW - real-time modeling

KW - skill assessment

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84882759498&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84882759498&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1002/jgrc.20223

DO - 10.1002/jgrc.20223

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84882759498

VL - 118

SP - 2919

EP - 2933

JO - Journal of Geophysical Research

JF - Journal of Geophysical Research

SN - 0148-0227

IS - 6

ER -