Assessing Employee Support during Union Organizing Campaigns

Many labor unions assess support among prospective members to guide decision making during organizing campaigns, and to predict voting in representation elections. However, research on the actual practice of how unions make assessments is limited. We fill this void through a study that combined quantitative and qualitative analysis of the assessment activities. The quantitative portion involved a survey of eligible voters in the 2010 flight attendant representation election at Delta Air Lines. The qualitative portion involved in-depth interviews with staff involved in that campaign and organizing directors or key organizing staff in nine of the largest labor unions in the United States. We focus on the factors that influence the accuracy of assessment predictions, describe practices currently being used to predict votes in these campaigns, and discuss future research needs.