In this paper we document that the hypothesis that the forward exchange rate discount is an unbiased predictor of future currency depreciation holds in periods when the forward US dollar is quoted at a premium against the Japanese yen and the Deutschmark, but fails when it is quoted at a discount for the post-Bretton Woods floating exchange rate era. Moreover, the observed asymmetry is statistically significant. This puzzling result remains to be explained.
All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- Economics and Econometrics
- Forward market efficiency
- Unbiasedness hypothesis