Beyond intention to treat analysis in welfare-to-work studies: The efficacy of labor force attachment, human capital investment and combined strategies for self-sufficiency

Using a sample of 2072 women who participated in New Jersey's Family Development Program experiment during 1992-1996, we compare three welfare-to-work strategies-labor force attachment (LFA), human capital investment (HCI), and a mixed strategy-employing traditional effectiveness analysis within an experimental design and an efficacy approach which controls for selective participation by experimental and control subjects. Controlling for selective participation, we find that each year of participation in LFA increases the probability of employment by about 3 percent. In our earnings analyses we find that HCI participants earn about $163 less per year of exposure to this strategy.