Ecological Change, Changes in Violence, and Risk Prediction

The article summarizes recent research linking changes in a neighborhood's position in the overall urban mosaic with changes in violence. Baltimore neighborhoods in the 1970s, which were either becoming further entrenched in an underclass status or gentrifying, experienced increasing levels of relative violence. Evidence indicated that declining relative status or declining stability was linked to these increases in violence. This article explores the theoretical and policy implications of an ecological perspective on the shifting violence levels. Policymakers concerned with stemming violence can use an ecological orientation to develop proactive policies and assist in resource allocation decisions.