Inequality and regime change: Democratic transitions and the stability of democratic rule

Stephan Haggard, Robert R. Kaufman

Research output: Contribution to journalReview articlepeer-review

130 Scopus citations

Abstract

Recent work by Carles Boix and Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson has focused on the role of inequality and distributive conflict in transitions to and from democratic rule. We assess these claims through causal process observation, using an original qualitative dataset on democratic transitions and reversions during the "third wave" from 1980 to 2000. We show that distributive conflict, a key causal mechanism in these theories, is present in just over half of all transition cases. Against theoretical expectations, a substantial number of these transitions occur in countries with high levels of inequality. Less than a third of all reversions are driven by distributive conflicts between elites and masses. We suggest a variety of alternative causal pathways to both transitions and reversions.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)495-516
Number of pages22
JournalAmerican Political Science Review
Volume106
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 2012

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Sociology and Political Science
  • Political Science and International Relations

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