Judging a book by its cover: Did perceptions of the 1996 US welfare reforms affect public support for spending on the poor?

Research into public policy and public opinion demonstrates ample evidence that opinion affects policy, but relatively limited empirical findings regarding how policy might affect opinion: a process dubbed policy feedback. Much of the literature examines aggregate reactions to policy, while related public opinion research emphasises individual findings driven primarily by party affiliation or political ideology. This article takes the research one step further, examining whether individuals' judgements of policy effectiveness contribute to their support for or opposition to government policy spending. Specifically, it examines the case of US welfare reform and public reactions to it using a national survey conducted in 2001. Findings based on multinomial logistic regression analysis demonstrate not only that people's judgements of welfare reform's effectiveness contribute to their support for government spending on the poor, but also that the reasons behind their judgements matter.