Model-Based Reliability Analysis with Both Model Uncertainty and Parameter Uncertainty

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Model-based reliability analysis may not be practically useful if reliability estimation contains uncontrollable errors. This paper addresses potential reliability estimation errors from model bias together with model parameters. Given three representative scenarios, reliability analysis strategies with representative methods are proposed. The pros and cons of these strategies are discussed and demonstrated using a tank storage problem based on the finite element model with different fidelity levels. It is found in this paper that the confidence-based reliability analysis considering epistemic uncertainty modeling for both model bias and model parameters can make reliability estimation errors controllable with less conservativeness compared to the direct reliability modeling using the Bayesian approach.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number051404
JournalJournal of Mechanical Design, Transactions of the ASME
Issue number5
StatePublished - May 1 2019

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Mechanics of Materials
  • Mechanical Engineering
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Computer Graphics and Computer-Aided Design


  • epistemic uncertainty
  • model uncertainty
  • parameter uncertainty
  • reliability analysis
  • reliability estimation errors


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