Modeling coastal flood risk and adaptation response under future climate conditions

Mark Lorie, James E. Neumann, Marcus C. Sarofim, Russell Jones, Radley M. Horton, Robert E. Kopp, Charles Fant, Cameron Wobus, Jeremy Martinich, Megan O'Grady, Lauren E. Gentile

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

16 Scopus citations


The National Coastal Property Model (NCPM) simulates flood damages resulting from sea level rise and storm surge along the contiguous U.S. coastline. The model also projects local-level investments in a set of adaptation measures under the assumption that these measures will be adopted when benefits exceed the costs over a 30-year period. However, it has been observed that individuals and communities often underinvest in adaptive measures relative to standard cost-benefit assumptions due to financial, psychological, sociopolitical, and technological factors. This study applies an updated version of the NCPM to incorporate improved cost-benefit tests and to approximate observed sub-optimal flood risk reduction behavior. The updated NCPM is tested for two multi-county sites: Virginia Beach, VA and Tampa, FL. Sub-optimal adaptation approaches slow the implementation of adaptation measures throughout the 100-year simulation and they increase the amount of flood damages, especially early in the simulation. The net effect is an increase in total present value cost of $1.1 to $1.3 billion (2015 USD), representing about a 10% increase compared to optimal adaptation approaches. Future calibrations against historical data and incorporation of non-economic factors driving adaptation decisions could prove useful in better understanding the impacts of continued sub-optimal behavior.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number100233
JournalClimate Risk Management
StatePublished - 2020

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Global and Planetary Change
  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Atmospheric Science
  • Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law


  • Adaptation
  • Coastal flooding
  • Sea level rise


Dive into the research topics of 'Modeling coastal flood risk and adaptation response under future climate conditions'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this