Mortality data analysis, modeling and prediction

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaperpeer-review


This paper examines the mortality rate data in the United States over a period of 10 years from 1995 to 2004 based on several common distribution functions, such as Gompertz, Gompertz-Makeham, Logistic, log logistic, loglog and Weibull, to determine several key measures in the area of mortality including life expectancy. The logistic distribution seems to out performs the other five functions based on the analyzed data with respect to the mean squares error criteria. The life expectancy at birth is defined as the average number of years a person born in a given year is expected to live. Life expectancy is defined as the average number of years of life remaining to a person at a particular age. We find that on average the life expectancy at birth in the United States in 2004 for overall, males and females were 83.7, 81.3 and 84.7 years, respectively. This new result shows that the life expectancy on average in the United States is significantly larger than in existing official reports. Life expectancy obviously changes as one will get older. By the time of late adulthood, their chances of living longer increase. For example, although the life expectancy from birth for all people in the United States is 83.7 years, those who live to age 75 will gain an additional few years and making their life expectancy almost 87.5 years.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Number of pages5
StatePublished - Dec 1 2009
Event15th ISSAT International Conference on Reliability and Quality in Design - San Francisco, CA, United States
Duration: Aug 6 2009Aug 8 2009


Other15th ISSAT International Conference on Reliability and Quality in Design
CountryUnited States
CitySan Francisco, CA

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

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