TY - JOUR
T1 - Periodical characteristics of shipbuilding market activity
T2 - A wavelet analysis
AU - Song, Li
AU - Chen, Jihong
AU - Li, Kevin X.
AU - Liu, Xiang
AU - Fei, Yijie
AU - Yu, Hang
N1 - Funding Information:
This study is partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant nos. 51879156 and 51409157), the Program of Humanities & Social Science of the Ministry of Education of China (14YJC630008), the Shanghai Pujiang Program (17PJC053), and the Shanghai Science & Technology Committee Research Project (15590501700 and 17040501700). The authors thank the reviewers and editors for their valuable comments and kind help with this paper.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 National Taiwan Ocean University. All rights reserved.
PY - 2018
Y1 - 2018
N2 - Shipbuilding, a significant sector of the international shipping market, shows fluctuations and periodicity typical of variations in supply and demand. However, it takes a significant amount of time to build a ship, and the influencing factors are complex. Therefore, attempts to understand the market's fluctuations by directly analyzing these influencing factors suffer from high inaccuracy, necessitating a quantitative analysis of shipbuilding's periodic features. In this paper, we used wavelet analysis, an efficient way to analyze time series data, to analyze the unit price of a Panamax bulk ship's compensated gross tonnage and get the periodical features of the market. Choosing a significantly periodic wavelet coefficient curve yields three different cycle lengths: a 1-year seasonal cycle, a 3.5-year short-term cycle, and a 13-year medium-to-long-term cycle. Finally, we analyzed the accumulated wavelet coefficient curve, and forecasted that the market should reach its next prosperity phase around 2023 in the medium-to-long-term cycle. The present study is in the direct interest of maritime practitioners, because it helps to more precisely forecast shipbuilding market fluctuations, allowing them to make informed decisions.
AB - Shipbuilding, a significant sector of the international shipping market, shows fluctuations and periodicity typical of variations in supply and demand. However, it takes a significant amount of time to build a ship, and the influencing factors are complex. Therefore, attempts to understand the market's fluctuations by directly analyzing these influencing factors suffer from high inaccuracy, necessitating a quantitative analysis of shipbuilding's periodic features. In this paper, we used wavelet analysis, an efficient way to analyze time series data, to analyze the unit price of a Panamax bulk ship's compensated gross tonnage and get the periodical features of the market. Choosing a significantly periodic wavelet coefficient curve yields three different cycle lengths: a 1-year seasonal cycle, a 3.5-year short-term cycle, and a 13-year medium-to-long-term cycle. Finally, we analyzed the accumulated wavelet coefficient curve, and forecasted that the market should reach its next prosperity phase around 2023 in the medium-to-long-term cycle. The present study is in the direct interest of maritime practitioners, because it helps to more precisely forecast shipbuilding market fluctuations, allowing them to make informed decisions.
KW - Cycle
KW - Forecast
KW - Shipbuilding market
KW - Shipping
KW - Wavelet analysis
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U2 - 10.6119/JMST.201810_26(5).0008
DO - 10.6119/JMST.201810_26(5).0008
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85060735225
SN - 1023-2796
VL - 26
SP - 692
EP - 702
JO - Journal of Marine Science and Technology
JF - Journal of Marine Science and Technology
IS - 5
ER -