Probabilistic Sea Level Projections at the Coast by 2100

S. Jevrejeva, T. Frederikse, R. E. Kopp, G. Le Cozannet, L. P. Jackson, R. S.W. van de Wal

Research output: Contribution to journalReview articlepeer-review

46 Scopus citations


As sea level is rising along many low-lying and densely populated coastal areas, affected communities are investing resources to assess and manage future socio-economic and ecological risks created by current and future sea level rise. Despite significant progress in the scientific understanding of the physical mechanisms contributing to sea level change, projections beyond 2050 remain highly uncertain. Here, we present recent developments in the probabilistic projections of coastal mean sea level rise by 2100, which provides a summary assessment of the relevant uncertainties. Probabilistic projections can be used directly in some of the decision frameworks adopted by coastal engineers for infrastructure design and land use planning. However, relying on a single probability distribution or a set of distributions based upon a common set of assumptions can understate true uncertainty and potentially misinform users. Here, we put the probabilistic projections published over the last 5 years into context.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1673-1696
Number of pages24
JournalSurveys in Geophysics
Issue number6
StatePublished - Nov 1 2019

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Geophysics
  • Geochemistry and Petrology


  • Climate change
  • Coastal impact
  • Probabilistic sea level projections
  • Sea level rise


Dive into the research topics of 'Probabilistic Sea Level Projections at the Coast by 2100'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this