Quantitative skill of quasi-geostrophic forecasts of a baroclinically unstable Iceland-Faroe front

A. J. Miller, P. M. Poulain, A. R. Robinson, Hernan Arango, W. G. Leslie, A. Warn-Varnas

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

10 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Using initialization and validation conditions from hydrographic surveys, shipboard quasi-geostrophic model forecasts executed in real time are evaluated for quantitative skill in terms of anomaly correlation coefficient and rms error. The forecasts correlate with validating observations, yielding anomaly correlation coefficients of 0.75-0.80, which beat persistence-of-day-zero forecasts by 0.07-0.30. The forecast fields of stream function are also used to diagnose the physical processes of the frontal current variations. Energetic diagnostics clearly reveal that the frontal current evolution is controlled by baroclinic instability processes. -from Authors

Original languageEnglish (US)
JournalJournal of Geophysical Research
Volume100
Issue numberC6
StatePublished - Jan 1 1995
Externally publishedYes

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Hydrographic surveys
Iceland
forecasting
correlation coefficients
baroclinic instability
anomalies
anomaly
hydrographic survey
synchronism
energetics
persistence
forecast

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Geophysics
  • Oceanography
  • Forestry
  • Aquatic Science
  • Ecology
  • Condensed Matter Physics
  • Water Science and Technology
  • Soil Science
  • Geochemistry and Petrology
  • Earth-Surface Processes
  • Physical and Theoretical Chemistry
  • Polymers and Plastics
  • Atmospheric Science
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
  • Space and Planetary Science
  • Materials Chemistry
  • Palaeontology

Cite this

Miller, A. J., Poulain, P. M., Robinson, A. R., Arango, H., Leslie, W. G., & Warn-Varnas, A. (1995). Quantitative skill of quasi-geostrophic forecasts of a baroclinically unstable Iceland-Faroe front. Journal of Geophysical Research, 100(C6).
Miller, A. J. ; Poulain, P. M. ; Robinson, A. R. ; Arango, Hernan ; Leslie, W. G. ; Warn-Varnas, A. / Quantitative skill of quasi-geostrophic forecasts of a baroclinically unstable Iceland-Faroe front. In: Journal of Geophysical Research. 1995 ; Vol. 100, No. C6.
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Miller, AJ, Poulain, PM, Robinson, AR, Arango, H, Leslie, WG & Warn-Varnas, A 1995, 'Quantitative skill of quasi-geostrophic forecasts of a baroclinically unstable Iceland-Faroe front', Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 100, no. C6.

Quantitative skill of quasi-geostrophic forecasts of a baroclinically unstable Iceland-Faroe front. / Miller, A. J.; Poulain, P. M.; Robinson, A. R.; Arango, Hernan; Leslie, W. G.; Warn-Varnas, A.

In: Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 100, No. C6, 01.01.1995.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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