Quantitative skill of quasi-geostrophic forecasts of a baroclinically unstable Iceland-Faroe front

A. J. Miller, P. M. Poulain, A. R. Robinson, H. G. Arango, W. G. Leslie, A. Warn-Varnas

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Abstract

Using initialization and validation conditions from hydrographic surveys, shipboard quasi-geostrophic model forecasts executed in real time are evaluated for quantitative skill in terms of anomaly correlation coefficient and rms error. The forecasts correlate with validating observations, yielding anomaly correlation coefficients of 0.75-0.80, which beat persistence-of-day-zero forecasts by 0.07-0.30. The forecast fields of stream function are also used to diagnose the physical processes of the frontal current variations. Energetic diagnostics clearly reveal that the frontal current evolution is controlled by baroclinic instability processes. -from Authors

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)10,833-10,849
JournalJournal of Geophysical Research
Volume100
Issue numberC6
StatePublished - Jan 1 1995
Externally publishedYes

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All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Geophysics
  • Forestry
  • Oceanography
  • Aquatic Science
  • Ecology
  • Water Science and Technology
  • Soil Science
  • Geochemistry and Petrology
  • Earth-Surface Processes
  • Atmospheric Science
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
  • Space and Planetary Science
  • Palaeontology

Cite this

Miller, A. J., Poulain, P. M., Robinson, A. R., Arango, H. G., Leslie, W. G., & Warn-Varnas, A. (1995). Quantitative skill of quasi-geostrophic forecasts of a baroclinically unstable Iceland-Faroe front. Journal of Geophysical Research, 100(C6), 10,833-10,849.