Risk Factors and Trends in Incidence of Heart Failure Following Acute Myocardial Infarction

Patients who develop heart failure (HF) after an acute myocardial infarction (AMI) are at higher risk of adverse fatal and nonfatal outcomes. Published studies on the incidence and associations of HF after infarction have been contradictory, with some reporting increasing and others decreasing incidence. Between 2000 and 2015, 109,717 patients admitted for a first AMI in New Jersey were discharged alive. In the 15 years from 2000 to 2015, the rates of admission for HF in AMI patients who were discharged alive decreased by 60%, from 3.48% to 1.4%, at 1-year follow-up. At 5 years of follow-up, the decline was more pronounced, from 7.21% to 1.4%, an 80% decline. All-cause death, and the combined end point of admission for HF or death, showed decreasing trends. Cox regression indicated a decrease in the risk of admission for HF over time (hazard ratio [HR] 0.955, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.949 to 0.961). Younger age, male gender, and commercial insurance were associated with lower HRs for HF (p <0.001), whereas history of hypertension, diabetes, kidney, or lung disease were associated with higher HRs (p <0.001). There was no significant difference in the rate of HF between subendocardial and transmural AMI (adjusted OR was 0.96, CI 0.90 to 1.03, p = 0.241). Revascularization was associated with a marked decrease in HF admissions (adjusted OR 0.22, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.25, p <0.001 for percutaneous coronary intervention and OR 0.44, 95% CI 0.38 to 0.51, p <0.001 for CABG). In conclusion, the rate of admission for HF after discharge for a first myocardial infarction as well as all-cause death decreased markedly from 2000 to 2015.