Synergistic effect of climate change and water management: Historical and future soil salinity in the Kur-Araz lowland, Azerbaijan

While soil salinization is a major threat to the food security and sustainability of humanity, information on salinization in developing countries is limited. In this study, Landsat data were used to predict the salinization process from 1986 to 2021 in the Kur-Araz lowland of Azerbaijan, and water movement and salinity transport models were developed to calculate the effects of climate change and water management. The model results showed that increases in rainfall and drainage have led to dramatic improvements in soil salinity and agricultural productivity and that these changes were caused by the synergistic effect of climate change and water management. The future predictions indicate that rainfall will decrease due to the decrease in evaporation in the neighboring Caspian Sea, leading to further re-salinization. Soil re-salinization would be a severe threat to the sustainability of the agricultural industry and food security of Azerbaijan and neighboring countries. More scientific attention and efforts should be devoted to developing countries in preparation for the impact of climate change.