Abstract
A nonnegative martingale with initial value equal to one measures evidence against a probabilistic hypothesis. The inverse of its value at some stopping time can be interpreted as a Bayes factor. If we exaggerate the evidence by considering the largest value attained so far by such a martingale, the exaggeration will be limited, and there are systematic ways to eliminate it. The inverse of the exaggerated value at some stopping time can be interpreted as a p-value. We give a simple characterization of all increasing functions that eliminate the exaggeration.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 84-101 |
| Number of pages | 18 |
| Journal | Statistical Science |
| Volume | 26 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - 2011 |
All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- Statistics and Probability
- General Mathematics
- Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
Keywords
- Bayes factors
- Evidence
- Hypothesis testing
- Martingales
- p-values