Validation of a learning progression: Relating empirical data to theory

Learning progressions (LPs) are theoretical models of learning trajectories in a domain. Recent policy reports have touted LPs as a promising approach to align standards, curriculum, and assessment. However, the scholarship on LPs is sparse, and the jury is still out on the theoretical and practical value of this approach. To realize any potential of LPs we need to systematically validate and refine these hypothetical models in real-world contexts. Such validation efforts are challenging, as they require the coordination of messy empirical data with, often, under-specified theoretical models. In this paper we report on our efforts to validate a genetics LP through a two-year longitudinal study in middle school. We describe how we used interview data to refine the hypothesized levels of progression in our LP and to identify contingencies between constructs (big ideas) within our LP. We conclude with some tentative heuristics for coordinating data and LP models.